Ray Dalio, a guru in the world of investments, outlined his Big Cycle theory two and a half years ago, but right now it is receiving obvious confirmation in Ukraine.
The world, according to Dalio, is today at a stage similar to the period of 1930–1945. This is stage 6, the last in the cycle, meaning armed war, when existential values clash having a roughly equal balance of forces. Such a clash can only end on the battlefield with the surrender of one of the parties.
All the previous five stages, from the building of the post-war world order, the prosperity achieved, the appearance of material excesses and the gap between the strata of the population, and ending with economic crises, have already been passed.
In any case, the investor believes that it is important to know two things about war: 1) no matter how you plan it, everything will not go according to plan, and 2) no matter how we imagine war, in reality it will be much worse.